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☆ Jamie Dimon says inflation is worse than people think, and that the market is too optimistic about a soft landing
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-16 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

download the appSign up to get the inside scoop on today’s biggest stories in markets, tech, and business — delivered daily. Read previewMarkets underestimate inflation's likely endurance, as an array of factors keep price upside churning, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon told Bloomberg TV. "I think the underlying inflation may not go away the way people expect it to," he told the outlet at the JPMorgan Global Markets Conference. AdvertisementIt's a point Dimon keeps reiterating despite market bullishness, as investors keep trading on the premise that subsiding inflation allows interest rates to eventually ease. In his annual letter to JPMorgan shareholders published last month, he expressed similarly doomy outlooks concerning inflation, interest rates and the economy's trajectory.

Persons: —, Jamie Dimon, Dimon's, he's, Dimon Organizations: Service, JPMorgan, Bloomberg, JPMorgan Global Markets, Business, Bank of America's, Global Fund Locations: Bank, China, Beijing, Russia, United States

☆ 5 defensive trades to make if stagflation and hard-landing fears cause a stock sell-off, BofA says
▼ + stars: | 2024-05-14 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

Stocks are vulnerable to a stagflation or hard landing rebound, says Bank of America's Michael Hartnett. AdvertisementStock markets face downturn risk if stagflation or recession anxiety re-materializes, Bank of America's top global strategist Michael Hartnett wrote on Tuesday. "Sentiment not at 'close-eyes-and-sell' levels but risk assets vulnerable to more evidence of stagflation," he noted in the bank's latest Global Fund Manager Survey. Although outlooks have since calmed, stagflation seemed like a growing possibility last month, when estimate-beating inflation data eclipsed shallow first-quarter GDP. Stagflation may have some part to play, as inflation remains the leading tail risk, while fears of an "economic hard landing" grew stronger.

Persons: America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, —, Michael Hartnett, stagflation Organizations: America's, Service, materializes, Bank of America's, Global Fund, Survey, Japan Utilities, Federal Reserve Locations: China, Europe, Japan

☆ Now is probably a good time to hedge against downside risk in the stock market. Here are 4 ways you can protect your portfolio — including 2 that are historically cheap.
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-31 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

But with the market at an all-time high, now is probably a good time to hedge against potential downside, experts say. That's especially the case because there's an elevated degree of risk facing stocks, and the cost of some insurance measures is historically cheap. Related storiesThe S&P 500 also looks overextended on a technical basis, according to many measures. AdvertisementRosenberg Research"The definition of a stretched market is one when the S&P 500 gaps 14% or more above the 200-day trendline. Beyond extreme, in fact — back to 1928, the S&P 500 has only drifted this far above the moving average 7% of the time," Rosenberg said.

Persons: Jim Smigiel, they've, Louis Fed, Phillip Colmar, Colmar, David Rosenberg, Rosenberg, Steve Sosnick, we're, Smigiel, Sosnick Organizations: Service, Nvidia, Microsoft, Bank of America's, Survey, Bank of America, SEI, Fed, Louis Fed Inflation, MRB Partners, Rebels, Rosenberg Research, Interactive Brokers Locations: Ukraine, Russia, Israel, Palestine, Suez

☆ It's been four years since the market's Covid low with the S&P 500 returning 25% annualized since
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-23 | by ( Michael Santoli | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +8 min

The four-year total return for the S & P 500 since March 23, 2020, is just about 150%, or 25.7% annualized. .SPX mountain 2020-03-23 S & P 500 since the Covid low This is, of course, an idealized starting point from which to measure performance. While the S & P 500 bottomed at around a three-year low under 2,200, the index spent only a few weeks under 2,500. More qualitatively, it's a bull market, and in a bull market the overshoots occur to the upside, so a rally being "ahead of itself" is not fatal. And the S & P 500 is only 9% higher than it was more than two years ago, hardly reaching escape velocity from planet Sanity.

Persons: –, Warren, Ned Davis, Tim Hayes, bullishness, Rocky White Organizations: HSBC, 3Fourteen, Bank of Japan, Fed, Ned Davis Research, Schaeffer's Investment Research, Intelligence, Bank of America

☆ Dollar General's brand is showing some cracks and may be a warning sign ahead of earnings
▼ + stars: | 2024-03-12 | by ( Christina Cheddar Berk | In | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +7 min

In collecting this data, the firm saw a deterioration in the Dollar General brand last year. As of Monday's close, Dollar General's stock is up more than 57% from a 52-week low of $101.09 reached in mid-October. Their research found that consumers felt the cleanliness of Dollar General's stores, a top five driver of satisfaction, lagged key peers Dollar Tree and Family Dollar, and fell 2% further in February. Until November, shoppers rated Family Dollar and Dollar General's product offerings more or less on a par with each other. In addition to Dollar General's own challenges, all dollar stores are likely being hurt by weaker spending among low income consumers.

Persons: Vasos, what's, Todd Vasos, Jeff Owen, Gordon Haskett, Chuck Grom, Grom, bode, Piper Sandler, Peter Keith, Keith, Morgan Stanley, Simeon Gutman, Gutman, Michael Lasser, Lasser, Matthew Boss, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Dollar, DG, Occupational Safety, Health Administration, SNAP, UBS, JPMorgan

☆ Investors are the most bullish since early 2022 and 'all-in' on tech, says Bank of America survey
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Meanwhile, investors have cut their cash levels to 4.2% from 4.8%, the survey said. "Most bullish FMS in 2 years ... investors go all-in on U.S. tech," Hartnett wrote in a note to clients. For the first time since April 2022, investors became confident enough to predict that the U.S. economy would skirt a recession, the BofA survey showed. The proprietary indicator gauges when inflows or outflows related to stock-based funds point to investors moving too far to either side. Hartnett highlighted a few contrarian trades for a hard landing scenario, which includes going long cash and defensive stocks, and short technology companies.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America, Manager Survey, FMS Locations: U.S

☆ Long cash and short tech: The ultimate contrarian trades as investors turn the most bullish in 2 years
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-13 | by ( Yun Li | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Investor sentiment has turned so bullish that Bank of America's Michael Hartnett thinks it's time to consider a few contrarian trades. For the first time since April 2022, investors stopped predicting a recession in the U.S., the BofA survey showed. The Wall Street firm's widely followed investment strategist Hartnett is recommending a few contrarian trades for a "hard landing" scenario this year. He said investors could go long cash and defensive stocks, while shorting technology shares that have led the market rally over the past year. For a "no landing" scenario, where the economy would continue to grow but inflation stays high, the strategist recommends buying commodities, energy stocks as well as the greenback.

Persons: America's Michael Hartnett, Hartnett Organizations: America's, Survey, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Bank of America Locations: U.S

☆ Here are 3 ways the labor market is showing concerning deterioration underneath strong headline numbers — meaning a recession and stock-market sell-off could sneak up on investors
▼ + stars: | 2024-02-03 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +6 min

Read previewThe labor market smashed expectations in January, adding 353,000 new jobs, far above economist forecasts of 187,000. Despite the strong headline number, however, there are signs that the job market is deteriorating beneath the surface. For one, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' household survey is showing some divergence from its payroll survey. "High labor and credit costs are beginning to materially impact corporate profits, which impacts both the labor market and (eventually) the default rate." Still, while there are signs of weakening, there are also signs of improvement in the labor market.

Persons: —, Jeff Schulze, today's, Shulze, Louis Fed, Lance Roberts, Ian Shepherdson, Lauren Goodwin Organizations: Service, Federal Reserve, Business, of Labor Statistics, BLS, of Labor, ClearBridge Investments, RIA Advisors, National Federation of Independent Business, Pantheon, Bank of America's Global, New York Life Investments, ClearBridge

☆ 'You are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0': A 32-year market vet warns stocks are doomed to suffer substantial losses with valuations at historic highs and the economy on the verge of recession
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-27 | by ( William Edwards | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +7 min

"For those of you younger than us who did not live through the Tech Bubble of the late 1990s, you are now living through Tech Bubble 2.0. As a reminder, the NASDAQ fell about 80% when that bubble burst in the mild recession of the early 2000s," Wolfenbarger said. AdvertisementThere is evidence that backs up Wolfenbarger's bubble claims, starting with fairly standard valuation measures like the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio. While it's not as high as it was during the dot-com bubble, it's higher than it was in 1929 — and is at one of its most elevated levels in history. Bank of AmericaAs for what will finally deflate the bubble, Wolfenbarger is expecting a recession to hit the US economy.

Persons: —, Microsoft —, Jon Wolfenbarger, Merrill Lynch, Wolfenbarger, it's, America's Michael Hartnett, Louis Fed Wolfenbarger, Jeremy Grantham, Adam Karr, Orbis Investment Management Karr, It's Organizations: Service, Apple, Nvidia, Microsoft, Business, JPMorgan, ClearBridge, Tech, NASDAQ, ClearBridge Investments Bank, America's, Bank of America, Bank of America's Global, Institute for Supply Management's Manufacturing, Orbis Investment Management, Global Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Japan

☆ 7 stocks ready to rally by 118% to 288%, according to Wall Street's top analysts as compiled by a financial data firm
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-17 | by ( Laila Maidan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +2 min

If you're looking at this year's economic outlook to inform your investing decisions, you may want to rethink that strategy. Investors like Bryant VanCronkhite, a senior portfolio manager at Allspring , agree that the environment is ripe for active management. The days of overpriced equities that benefited from low interest rates will soon hit a brick wall. One option is to take a cue from Wall Street's top analysts — and TipRanks, a financial data firm, has analyzed reams of data to compile useful lists. Below is a set of seven mid-cap stocks that analysts have given "strong buy" ratings with high upside.

Persons: It's, Long, Goldman Sachs, Jean Boivin, Bryant, — Organizations: Business, Bank of, BlackRock Investment Institute, Allspring, NYSE, Nasdaq

☆ Global fund managers turn uber-bullish as stock rally rolls in to mid-December
▼ + stars: | 2023-12-19 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

If you want a sense of how frothy things have become, look no further than the December Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. This is a survey of roughly 250 global fund managers and is a very good gauge of sentiment among fund managers. 1-month average returns: 1.9% (vs. 0.6% in all 1-month periods) 3- month average returns: 3.3% (vs. 1.9%) 1- year average returns: 7.5% (vs. 7.9%) Source: StoneX While eight-day streaks are rare, the Dow has done even better. Last July, th e Dow broke a 13-day winning streak , the likes of which were last seen in 1987. It's currently at an RSI (Relative Strength Indicator, a gauge of momentum over the past 14 trading days) of 85.

Persons: Dow, Matt Weller, That's, Weller, It's Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Federal, Dow Locations: China

Rather, asset managers increasingly position these as now a feature of global investing choices rather than all-consuming shocks per se. Likely for the same reason, geopolitical risk monitors are at their highest in over 18 months too. Ebbing demand from a Chinese economy hobbled by property busts and a foreign investment withdrawal due to U.S. investment curbs also hurts. The VIX (.VIX) index of U.S. stock volatility is currently five points below its historic average 19 - and even July VIX futures hover on that mean. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for ReutersReporting by Mike Dolan Editing by Mark PotterOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.

Persons: there's, Washington's, Joe Biden, Donald Trump, What's, Melissa Brown, Axioma, Andrew McCaffery, Mike Dolan, Mark Potter Organizations: Bank of, Treasury, UBS Global Wealth Management, Barclays, Global CIO, Fidelity, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, Israel, United States, India, Taiwan, Mexico, Britain, Gaza, Russia, China, Wall

☆ If you want to be the ultimate contrarian next year, bet on these things happening
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-17 | by ( Hakyung Kim | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Based on the bank's monthly Global Fund Manager Survey, strategist Michael Hartnett created a list of "contrarian" outcomes and hedging opportunities. As of now, high-quality assets are expected to outperform in 2024, with only 6% of fund managers predicting otherwise, said Hartnett. Close to 90% of surveyed fund managers see elevated geopolitical risks in the coming year. For a contrarian outcome, Harnett says to trade as if oil prices will move lower still by shorting crude. Only 6% of fund managers are predicting inflation moves higher next year, according to BofA.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, Harnett, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: of America, Global Fund, Survey, Bank of America's, Nasdaq, Treasury, Securities

☆ Welcome to the (almost) red-hot bond market
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

When Treasury yields go up, so do mortgage rates; when they go down, mortgage rates tend to follow. Surging mortgage rates over the past few years have sent home loan applications and home sales down sharply. The 30-year fixed rate mortgage was also advancing towards 8% — a level not seen since the dot-com bubble popped in 2000. Those raging Treasury yields brought pain to investors and also increased how much American companies had to pay to service their debts. In fact, Wall Street is struggling to figure out what it means for the timing and scale of future rate cuts.

Persons: ”, Michael Hartnett, Gina Bolvin, “ We’re, Phillip Wool, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Ellen Zentner Organizations: New, New York CNN, New York Federal, Treasury, Dow, Bank of America, Bolvin Wealth Management, Mortgage News, Mortgage, Association, Financial, Consumer, Federal Reserve, Goldman, Fed, UBS, Airlines for America, AAA Locations: New York

☆ Investors are the most overweight bonds in 14 years, expecting rates to decline, survey shows
▼ + stars: | 2023-11-14 | by ( Jeff Cox | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Professional investors are flocking to bonds in a stampede not seen since the end of the financial crisis, according to the latest Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey. "The big change in the November FMS was not the macro outlook, but rather the conviction in lower inflation, rates, and yields," Bank of America investment strategist Michael Hartnett wrote in a summary of the results. The move was "evidenced by the 3rd largest overweight in bonds in the last two decades (only in Mar'09 and Dec'08 were investors more overweight bonds)." Expectations for a bond reversal dominated the November survey, with a record 61% saying they expect lower yields over the next 12 months. The "investor playbook for 2024 is soft landing, lower rates, weaker US$, large cap tech and pharma bull continues, avoid China and leverage," Hartnett said.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, playbook, Hartnett Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Survey, Wall Street, Bank of America, Mar, Federal Reserve, pharma Locations: China

If U.S. and Chinese growth holds up, the investment landscape will need to be redrawn too. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsBut what if peak bond bearishness is already upon us? As Societe Generale's Albert Edwards points out, once the quarterly deflator is factored in, nominal GDP growth in the third quarter was actually only 3.5%. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsEqually, U.S. stocks look expensive if high yields start to choke the economy. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing Rights(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.)

Persons: Florence Lo, Societe Generale's Albert Edwards, Chris Iggo, Jamie McGeever, Chizu Organizations: REUTERS, Rights, Societe Generale's, World Bank, International Monetary Fund, of America's, HSBC, Reuters, AXA Investment, Bank of America's, Thomson Locations: Rights ORLANDO , Florida, United States, China, Atlanta, Beijing, Europe, U.S, Bank

The 40-year bond bull market - a slow-inflating bubble like any other to some people - has crashed. Bank of America chart on survey of global funds' bond positioningBond Multiverse Returns Flip Positive2008... OR 2000? Of course, bond bubbles and bursts - at least for top-rated sovereigns - are not same as their equity counterparts, even if the short-term performance of bond funds seems to ape them. But for bond funds praying for a shorter-term price performance pickup, the situation looks nervier. With such an ephemeral variable at work, picking a durable turn in the battered bond market may prove fiendishly difficult.

Persons: Jason Lee, That's, Fed's, Olivier Davanne, midyear, Davanne, Mike Dolan Organizations: Hong, REUTERS, Treasury, U.S, Bank of America's, Federal Reserve, of America, Bloomberg, Invest, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Hong Kong, Paris

☆ In a world of competing stock market narratives, only one is holding true
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-18 | by ( Bob Pisani | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +3 min

No trend in market direction Try to find evidence that the market supports any of these narratives. The ETF to watch is Vanguard Megacap Growth . By contrast, the other 493 stocks in the S & P 500 are seeing earnings projections lower (Q3) or flat (Q4). Apple Q3: up 7% Q4: up 12% Microsoft Q3: up 13% Q4: up 14% Amazon Q3: up 107% Q4: up 2,091% (!) Nvidia Q3: up 471% Q4: up 316% Meta Q3: up 122% Q4: up 176% Tesla Q3: down 30% Q4: down 28% Source: Factset

Persons: Tomas Lee, There's, Russell, Tesla Organizations: Bank of America Global Fund, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, Tesla

☆ A widely followed Wall Street survey shows investors turning bearish again, raising cash levels
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-17 | by ( Samantha Subin | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

Professional investors are turning more bearish again amid the current macro backdrop, according to a closely watched Wall Street survey from Bank of America. The bank's Global Fund Manager survey showed investors have upped their cash levels and are maintaining a pessimistic outlook on growth and the economy. Specifically, strategist Michael Hartnett said the cash allocation among those surveyed increased to 5.3% from 4.9%, while staying neutral on stocks. "1 out of 4 [fund manager survey] investors expect that there will be no recession in the next 18 months," Hartnett said. A record number of respondents also indicated that monetary policy remains too tight, while fiscal policy is too easy.

Persons: Michael Hartnett, Hartnett, —, — CNBC's Michael Bloom Organizations: Bank of America, Global, Reserve

☆ Column-Bonds eye Q4 salvation in another year to forget: McGeever
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jamie Mcgeever | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Treasury bond indexes are down as much as 2.5% this year, not a huge move and most of it has come since Federal Reserve policymakers published their upwardly revised median policy projections on Sept. 20. For an investor with a typical portfolio weighted 60% stocks and 40% bonds, these losses are more than offset by double-digit equity returns. Their base case is for a 14% return on 10-year Treasuries, rising to 20% in the event of recession. Even in their upside scenario of a more resilient economy, 10-year Treasuries should return around 10% over the coming year, they estimate. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, meanwhile, showed that asset managers had built up a then record net long position in 10-year Treasuries futures of 1.26 million contracts by mid-January.

Persons: Kevin Lamarque, ”, Keith Lerner, Jonathan Duensing Organizations: Department of, U.S . Treasury, REUTERS, U.S, Treasuries, U.S ., Bank of America, Treasury, Bloomberg U.S, ICE, Advisory, Fed, UBS, Bank of, Futures, Amundi, Reuters Locations: ORLANDO, Florida, Washington , U.S, U.S . Republic, Treasuries

☆ Bonds eye Q4 salvation in another year to forget: McGeever
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-03 | by ( Jamie Mcgeever | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

☆ What could break under higher-for-longer interest rates?
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-29 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Yet, the strain from interest rate hikes has just started to come through and with central banks signalling that rates will likely stay higher for longer, the notion of something "breaking" remains strong. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics1/ PROPERTY PAINNowhere is the impact of higher rates being felt more acutely than in real estate, still reeling from COVID-19. "We have many zombie companies in the United States and Europe from the low interest rates era, and I cannot imagine how they can survive now with high interest rates." Still, big question marks remain over their future, not least from a global property rout. Miller noted that European banks are also vulnerable given their bigger size relative to the economy that leaves them more exposed to risks from various pockets.

Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Heimstaden, Markus Allenspach, Julius Baer, Guy Miller, Miller Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Reuters Graphics Reuters, SBB, China Evergrande, HK, Federal, European Central Bank, Zurich Insurance, The Bank of Japan, Capital, Thomson Locations: Washington, Sweden, Europe, Stockholm, Berlin, CHINA, China, United States, Big U.S

But the essence of the argument is that lower bond volatility ups the amount of cash liquidity flowing around world markets, and vice versa. But it is the incremental movement in this giant pool that arguably matters most for stock markets and asset prices. Even though global liquidity is shrinking as you might expect in the face of rising Western interest rates, central bank balance sheet reduction and a higher dollar, other offsets are significant. But falling bond volatility has likely played a big part in softening the blow too. "The two together have helped overall liquidity conditions - but we are mindful that bond markets are likely to remain volatile and need to be monitored carefully."

Persons: CrossBorder, Mike Dolan, Matthew Lewis Organizations: Federal Reserve, coy, Treasury, Fed, Bank, People's Bank of, New York Fed, Reuters Graphics, Reuters, Thomson Locations: Treasuries, punchbowl, People's Bank of China, United States

☆ CHART OF THE DAY: Chinese growth expectations fall to 'lockdown lows,' fund manager survey says
▼ + stars: | 2023-09-13 | by ( Filip De Mott | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

BofA's survey of fund managers found that a net 0% expect a stronger Chinese economy in the next 12 months. Investors noted that China's real estate sector is the most likely source of any future credit event risk. Describing expectations as back to "lockdown lows," BofA noted that's a whopping plummet from February, when a net 78% of respondents anticipated a stronger economy. But China's economy has slowed sharply in subsequent months, with rapid cooldowns seen in retail sales, industrial output, exports, and investment. In fact, fund managers responding to BofA's survey placed China's real estate as the most likely source of a future systemic credit event.

Persons: BofA, China's Organizations: Investors, Service, Bank of America Locations: Wall, Silicon, China, Beijing

U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's trip to China last month had promised some economic and trade detente between the two superpowers now at loggerheads. And none of the 222 funds polled expected China economic growth to be any higher next year than this - mirroring a recent Reuters survey of domestic and overseas banks and investors. As these sorts of surveys go, there's an awful lot in there that could spell "peak gloom". Indeed, shorting China equities was deemed the second "most crowded trade" behind long exposure to supercharged Big Tech stocks. Even if the economy turns, political catalysts for a return to China may be slow in coming.

Persons: Aly, Gina Raimondo's, it's, Jamie Dimon, Jay Clayton, Jenny Johnson, Franklin Templeton, Willem Sels, Mike Dolan, Sharon Singleton Organizations: REUTERS, . Commerce, Bank of, Big Tech, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, JPMorgan, Investments, The Ontario Teachers, Caisse, Franklin, HSBC Private Banking, Thomson Locations: Shanghai, Shenzhen, China, loggerheads, Wall, Asia, Silicon Valley, Hong Kong, Temasek, Bridgewater, Blackrock, India, Indonesia, Washington, United States

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